Chester County resident Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics and a frequent commentator on economic news, has published a severe warning, “Mr. President, a tweet could end your trade war and avoid recession. But hurry,” in the Aug. 23 Philadelphia Inquirer:
The risk of recession is uncomfortably high and rising. President Donald Trump’s trade war is the proximate cause of what ails the economy. Indeed, if the president follows through on his most recent threat to raise tariffs on Chinese imports, the odds of a downturn between now and this time next year are better than even.
The economy’s growth has already slowed sharply. Real GDP and job growth have throttled way back from this time last year, and unemployment is no longer declining.
The slowdown is due, in part, to the winding down of the deficit-financed tax cuts. The president had argued that the tax cuts, which went mostly to corporations and wealthy households, would significantly lift long-term growth. Not so….