Tag Archives: Lloyd Smucker

Trump Score updates

Data from FiveThirtyEight.com

Congratulations to Rep. Costello (R-06), whose Trump Score has declined from 94% to 90.6%, since he voted against H.R.38, the Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act of 2017 (which passed the House; it would allow anyone in the country who has a concealed gun permit to carry a gun anywhere, obviously an invitation for mayhem and anathema to those who believe states still have some rights). He is now 24.5% more Trump-friendly than his district.

Rep. Meehan (R-07) has sunk to a Trump Score of 85.7%, based on the same vote. His voting record is now 25.2% more “Trumpish” than his district.

Rep. Smucker (R-16), meanwhile, has boosted his Trump Score to 96.4% by voting for H.R.38, but his ‘Trump plus-minus” score is only 16.6% since his is a much more conservative district.

Sen. Toomey has achieved a 90.4% Trump Score, about 3 times Sen, Casey’s 29.6%. Naturally there are some votes where the parties actually still agree, like confirming an FBI director or keeping the US government open for business.

The Trump Score measures how often a legislator votes as Number 45 wishes.

2 Chesco reps make the Big Money 20 list

The group End Citizens United sponsors the “Big Money 20” campaign, “aimed at defeating incumbents who do the bidding of special interests such as drug companies, Big Oil, and Wall Street, while also rigging the system.”

Chester County’s all-R congressional delegation of 3 supplied 2 out of the 20 winners. In End Citizens United’s words:

Rep. Ryan Costello (R-PA 06)

Co-sponsored a bill that contributed to the opioid crisis by making it “virtually impossible” for the DEA to freeze suspicious shipments of drugs; and received more than $300,000 in contributions from the pharmaceutical industry over his career

Voted against campaign finance reforms, including the DISCLOSE Act and a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United

and Rep. Pat Meehan (R-PA 07)

Was the beneficiary of over $1.2 million of outside spending from secret money groups in 2010 and voted several times against disclosure requirements for those groups.

Flip-flopped on protecting Americans’ online privacy rights after a major uptick in contributions from the telecom industry, including from top donor Comcast

Is Chesco’s 3rd rep, Lloyd Smucker (R-PA 16), feeling left out?

You can hunt down a lot of info on donations to elected representatives at the Center for Responsive Politics’ Open Secrets site.

NRA and Chesco’s 3 R’s in the US House

Excerpts from “Have your representatives in Congress received donations from the NRA?,” by Aaron Williams, Washington Post, updated Oct. 5, 2017. (Note that organizations, like corporations, have ways other than direct contributions to support office-holders, such as encouraging contributions by individuals, channeling money through trade associations and “issue groups” that preserve anonymity, etc. Naturally in areas like Chester County which favor gun violence prevention, recipients of NRA funding would prefer it be off the record.)

“Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump”: Chesco’s 3 R’s

The site fivethirtyeight.com gives regular updates of US House members’ votes compared to the 2016 election result in their district, under the overall title “Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump.”

The point is to see how well they represent their constituents and also to provide a metric to compare their words and their votes. Some representatives may wish to be seen as “moderate” or reasonable” while others may wish to be known as hard-core Trumpists. But it’s the votes that count. For those who wish to break it down further, the site gives specific votes compared to the Trump position on each.

The site uses 4 numbers:

1) Trump score = How often the rep votes in line with Trump’s position
2) Trump margin = Trump’s share of the vote in that district minus Clinton’s
3) Predicted score = How often the rep is expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin
4) Trump plus-minus = Difference between Trump score and Predicted score

Here are the current numbers for Chesco’s 3 House members:

So all 3 have high “Trump scores.” Those whose districts Trump lost (negative “Trump margins”) have lower “Predicted scores” (because their constituents are not Trump-oriented) but have higher “Trump plus-minus” figures (a 25% gap between the “Trumpiness” of the district and of 2 of these House members is really quite a remarkable lack of representativeness, and even 15% more “Trumpish” than a district Trump won is quite an accomplishment).